Hosted by the Program on Chinese Cities （PCC）
12/05/2024 3:00 PM-4:00 PM EST
Presenter: Hong Chen
PhD Candidate, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University
Visiting scholar, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Supervisor: Prof. Yan Song
Abstract:
Large-scale photovoltaic (PV) power generation has become a global measure for energy transformation due to its clean and renewable. As PV projects burgeon, they intensify the demand for land resources. Given land’s scarcity, its efficient use for PV becomes paramount. Notably, in-depth studies focusing on the use of unused land for PV applications remain limited. This study examines the development of PV power generation on unused land in China, emphasizing site selection and the associated carbon reduction benefits. To achieve this, we developed an integrated assessment framework that combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS), an Ecological Niche Model, and an Eco-efficiency Evaluation Model. The findings indicate that approximately 1.57 million km² of unused land, accounting for 77.03% of the total unused land in China, is suitable for PV power generation. Among this, the proportions of high, moderate, general, and forced suitability are 8.83%, 29.16%, 36.15%, and 25.85%, respectively. Utilizing this unused land for PV power generation could significantly reduce energy-related carbon emissions. Specifically, if all suitable unused land were used for PV installation, the generated power would be 2.13 times China’s total electricity consumption in 2020, with a carbon reduction potential of 14.74 Gt. Furthermore, a heterogeneity analysis reveals that Xinjiang province has the highest potential for PV installation, with an estimated power generation capacity of 8.78 PWh and a carbon reduction potential of 285 Mt. However, the study also identifies a spatial mismatch between PV power generation capacity and electricity demand. Several major electricity-importing provinces—such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Liaoning—have relatively low potential for solar power generation on unused land. Conversely, six provinces—Xinjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Gansu, and Qinghai—could surpass energy self-sufficiency by utilizing their suitable unused land for PV installations. This research provides decision-makers with detailed utility-scale PV power generation maps for unused land in China, offering valuable insights for advancing carbon neutrality. Additionally, optimizing inter-regional power transmission could further enhance the benefits of PV deployment.