Hosted by the Program on Chinese Cities （PCC）
08/28/2025 3:00 PM-4:00 PM EST
Presenter: Jiaqing Zhang
Ph.D, majoring in Land Resource Management, China Agricultural University
Visiting scholar, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Supervisor: Prof. Yan Song
Abstract:
The Collectively-Owned Commercial Construction Land Market Reform (CCCLMR) is a major step in China’s land system reform, aiming to integrate urban and rural land markets and reduce local governments’ reliance on land finance (LFD). Using county-level land transaction data from 2013–2019 and a Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) approach, this study evaluates the causal impact of CCCLMR on LFD. The results show that the reform significantly lowers LFD, and the findings remain robust across different specifications. Mechanism analysis suggests that the effect mainly comes from a decline in the supply of state-owned land, while land prices show no clear change. At the same time, CCCLMR promotes market vitality and industrial clustering, indicating a shift from resource dependence to endogenous growth. The effect is stronger in eastern and western regions, counties with lower fiscal pressure, and non-resource-based cities. Overall, CCCLMR helps reduce LFD, improve fiscal structure, and support the sustainable development of local public finance.