Hosted by the Program on Chinese Cities （PCC）
09/25/2025 6:10 PM-6:20 PM EST
Presenter: Chenyu Yang
Postgraduate Student, majoring in Public Management, Beijing Normal University
Visiting scholar, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Supervisor: Prof. Yan Song
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of China’s rapid urbanization, a complex dynamic feedback system has emerged among population, housing prices, and economic growth. Deepening our understanding of their interactive mechanisms is crucial for promoting sustainable urban development. Existing research has focused on the relationships between pairs of variables, with limited studies examining all three within a unified framework. . This study plans to construct and apply a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model using panel data from China’s major prefecture-level cities spanning 2000-2023. It aims to systematically explore the dynamic interactions among net population inflow, housing prices, and economic growth. By employing tools such as impulse response functions and variance decomposition, the study aims to map the transmission pathways of external shocks within the system, identify lagged effects, and assess the relative importance of each variable. It seeks to validate the core transmission chain—“growth attracts population, population underpins housing prices”—while revealing the long-term potential suppression effects of excessive housing price increases on both the economy and population. This research aims to provide scientific reference for governments seeking to balance policies concerning talent attraction, real estate regulation, and economic development.