Hosted by the Program on Chinese Cities （PCC）
11/6/2025 6:00 PM-8:00 PM EST
Presenter: Lijie Xu
Ph.D, majoring in Management Science and Engineering, China Three Gorges University
Visiting scholar, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Supervisor: Prof. Yan Song
Abstract:
The co-evolution of the Science–Technology–Industry Complex System (STICS) is a key pathway to achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance.Based on complex systems theory and synergetics, this study develops an order parameter model of STICS and applies panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2009–2023). Using a combination of weighting methods, synergy degree modeling, kernel density estimation, Moran’s I, and the XGBoost–SHAP model, the research explores the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial differentiation, and driving factors of STICS.Results show that the system order degree follows an “S-shaped” trajectory—from slow initiation to rapid growth and stabilization—reflecting a shift from factor-driven to science-led innovation.The synergy degree has improved steadily but remains low, showing a spatial evolution from equilibrium to differentiation and polarization.Among the influencing factors, government support, labor input, and marketization level are the most significant, forming a “government–factor–market” innovation model.Nonlinear threshold and U-shaped interactions indicate that moderate government intervention promotes synergy, while excessive intervention causes crowding-out effects.